Tactical Sector Rotation
Business Cycle Sector Rotation • Monthly rebalancing
Business Cycle Dashboard
Sector allocation is driven by the Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) year-over-year and the current business cycle phase.
Current Phase
Early
LEI Y/Y (Latest)
-3.45%
Phase History (Last 24 Months)
| Month | LEI Y/Y | Signal | Phase |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01 | -3.45% | 3 | Early |
| 2025-12 | -3.64% | 3 | Early |
| 2025-11 | -3.74% | 3 | Early |
| 2025-10 | -3.16% | 3 | Early |
| 2025-09 | -3.34% | 3 | Early |
| 2025-08 | -3.53% | 3 | Early |
| 2025-07 | -3.52% | 3 | Early |
| 2025-06 | -3.98% | 3 | Early |
| 2025-05 | -3.88% | 3 | Early |
| 2025-04 | -4.25% | 3 | Early |
| 2025-03 | -3.55% | 3 | Early |
| 2025-02 | -2.97% | 3 | Early |
| 2025-01 | -2.69% | 3 | Early |
| 2024-12 | -2.96% | 2 | Recovery |
| 2024-11 | -2.96% | 2 | Recovery |
| 2024-10 | -3.70% | 2 | Recovery |
| 2024-09 | -4.33% | 2 | Recovery |
| 2024-08 | -4.58% | 2 | Recovery |
| 2024-07 | -4.74% | 2 | Recovery |
| 2024-06 | -4.55% | 2 | Recovery |
| 2024-05 | -4.98% | 2 | Recovery |
| 2024-04 | -5.39% | 2 | Recovery |
| 2024-03 | -5.54% | 2 | Recovery |
| 2024-02 | -6.54% | 2 | Recovery |
As of 2026-01-31
Phase-to-Sector Mapping
Each business cycle phase allocates to different S&P 500 sectors based on historical performance.
Decline
Staples (XLP)
Recovery
Materials (XLB), Discretionary (XLY)
Early
Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), Industrials (XLI)
Late
Info Tech (XLK), Health Care (XLV), Consumer S.
Rebound
Telecom, Utilities
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